Add PyTorch recurrent forecaster
This commit is contained in:
@@ -72,6 +72,22 @@ python tools\train_lstm_forecaster.py --symbols BTCUSDT,ETHUSDT,SOLUSDT,XRPUSDT,
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Файл из `TIME_SERIES_LSTM_MODEL_PATH` читается ботом автоматически. Даже если LSTM-параметры сохранены, сделка меняется только тогда, когда текущая walk-forward проверка в `crypto_spot_bot/time_series.py` показывает качество лучше baseline.
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Для более тяжелого локального обучения можно использовать настоящий PyTorch `LSTM/GRU` trainer. PyTorch нужен только на машине обучения; в JSON экспортируются веса, а runtime на Raspberry Pi считает inference обычным Python-кодом:
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```powershell
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.\.venv\Scripts\python.exe -m pip install torch --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/cpu
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.\.venv\Scripts\python.exe tools\train_torch_recurrent_forecaster.py `
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--symbols BTCUSDT,ETHUSDT,SOLUSDT,XRPUSDT,LTCUSDT `
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--limit 1000 `
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--architectures lstm,gru `
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--lookbacks 32,64 `
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--hidden-sizes 16,32 `
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--layers 1 `
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--epochs 60
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```
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Экспортированные модели появляются в dashboard как `torch_lstm` или `torch_gru`; легкий `lstm`-кандидат остается доступен как fallback.
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Автопереобучение запускает тот же train-скрипт, пишет лог в `runtime/lstm_retrain.log` и защищается от параллельных запусков:
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```powershell
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@@ -86,7 +102,7 @@ bash tools/run_lstm_retrain.sh
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bash tools/install_lstm_retrainer_systemd.sh
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```
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По умолчанию расписание переобучает каждые 6 часов с `--limit 1000`; Windows-установщик фиксирует пары `BTCUSDT,ETHUSDT,SOLUSDT,XRPUSDT,LTCUSDT`, чтобы первый scheduled run был предсказуемым. Параметры можно переопределить через env: `LSTM_RETRAIN_SYMBOLS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_LIMIT`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_LOOKBACKS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_UNITS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_RIDGES`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_INTERVAL`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_ENV`.
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По умолчанию Windows-расписание переобучает PyTorch `LSTM/GRU` каждые 6 часов с `--limit 1000`; Windows-установщик фиксирует пары `BTCUSDT,ETHUSDT,SOLUSDT,XRPUSDT,LTCUSDT`, чтобы первый scheduled run был предсказуемым. Параметры можно переопределить через env: `LSTM_RETRAIN_SYMBOLS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_LIMIT`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_LOOKBACKS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_ARCHITECTURES`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_HIDDEN_SIZES`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_LAYERS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_DROPOUTS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_EPOCHS`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_PATIENCE`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_INTERVAL`, `LSTM_RETRAIN_ENV`. Для старого легкого trainer можно запустить `tools\run_lstm_retrain.ps1 -Trainer reservoir`.
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## Docker
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@@ -171,6 +171,9 @@ def _validate_candidates(
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lstm_artifact: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
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) -> list[dict[str, float | str]]:
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models = ["naive", "drift", "ewma", "ar1", "ar3"]
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torch_model = _torch_recurrent_model_name(symbol, lstm_artifact or {})
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if torch_model and _can_use_torch_recurrent(returns, symbol, lstm_artifact or {}):
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models.append(torch_model)
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if _can_use_lstm(returns, settings, symbol, lstm_artifact or {}):
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models.append("lstm")
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rows: list[dict[str, float | str]] = []
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@@ -206,6 +209,8 @@ def _predict_next_return(
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return _ar_predict(returns, 1)
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if model == "ar3":
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return _ar_predict(returns, 3)
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if model in {"torch_lstm", "torch_gru"}:
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return _torch_recurrent_predict(returns, symbol, lstm_artifact or {})
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if model == "lstm" and settings is not None:
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return _lstm_predict(returns, settings, symbol, lstm_artifact or {})
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return 0.0
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@@ -285,6 +290,235 @@ def _clean_lstm_params(data: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, float | int]:
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return clean
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def _torch_recurrent_model_name(symbol: str | None, lstm_artifact: dict[str, Any]) -> str | None:
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entry = _torch_recurrent_entry(symbol, lstm_artifact)
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if not entry:
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return None
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architecture = str(entry.get("architecture", "")).strip().lower()
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if architecture in {"lstm", "gru"}:
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return f"torch_{architecture}"
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model = str(entry.get("model", "")).strip().lower()
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return model if model in {"torch_lstm", "torch_gru"} else None
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def _torch_recurrent_entry(symbol: str | None, lstm_artifact: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
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symbols = lstm_artifact.get("symbols")
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entry = symbols.get(symbol.upper()) if symbol and isinstance(symbols, dict) else None
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if not isinstance(entry, dict):
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default = lstm_artifact.get("default")
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entry = default if isinstance(default, dict) else None
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if not isinstance(entry, dict):
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return None
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if not isinstance(entry.get("state_dict"), dict):
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return None
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return entry
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def _can_use_torch_recurrent(returns: list[float], symbol: str | None, lstm_artifact: dict[str, Any]) -> bool:
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entry = _torch_recurrent_entry(symbol, lstm_artifact)
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if not entry:
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return False
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lookback = int(_clamp(_float_entry(entry, "lookback", 0.0), 4.0, 512.0))
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hidden_size = int(_clamp(_float_entry(entry, "hidden_size", 0.0), 1.0, 512.0))
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num_layers = int(_clamp(_float_entry(entry, "num_layers", 1.0), 1.0, 8.0))
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return len(returns) >= lookback + 1 and hidden_size > 0 and num_layers > 0
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def _torch_recurrent_predict(
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returns: list[float],
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symbol: str | None,
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lstm_artifact: dict[str, Any],
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) -> float:
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entry = _torch_recurrent_entry(symbol, lstm_artifact)
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model_name = _torch_recurrent_model_name(symbol, lstm_artifact)
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if not entry or not model_name:
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return _predict_next_return("drift", returns)
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lookback = int(_clamp(_float_entry(entry, "lookback", 0.0), 4.0, 512.0))
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hidden_size = int(_clamp(_float_entry(entry, "hidden_size", 0.0), 1.0, 512.0))
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num_layers = int(_clamp(_float_entry(entry, "num_layers", 1.0), 1.0, 8.0))
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mean = _float_entry(entry, "mean", 0.0)
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scale = max(_float_entry(entry, "scale", _return_scale(returns)), 1e-8)
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clip = _clamp(_float_entry(entry, "clip", 8.0), 1.0, 50.0)
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if len(returns) < lookback:
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return _predict_next_return("drift", returns)
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normalized = [_clamp((value - mean) / scale, -clip, clip) for value in returns[-lookback:]]
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try:
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hidden = _torch_recurrent_hidden(
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normalized,
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entry=entry,
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model_name=model_name,
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hidden_size=hidden_size,
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num_layers=num_layers,
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)
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if hidden is None:
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return _predict_next_return("drift", returns)
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head_weight = _float_vector(entry.get("head_weight"))
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head_bias = _float_entry(entry, "head_bias", 0.0)
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if len(head_weight) != hidden_size:
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return _predict_next_return("drift", returns)
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normalized_prediction = sum(weight * value for weight, value in zip(head_weight, hidden)) + head_bias
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if not math.isfinite(normalized_prediction):
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return _predict_next_return("drift", returns)
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prediction = _clamp(normalized_prediction, -clip, clip) * scale + mean
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except (IndexError, KeyError, TypeError, ValueError, OverflowError):
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return _predict_next_return("drift", returns)
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recent_abs = sorted(abs(value) for value in returns[-48:]) if len(returns) >= 8 else [0.01]
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cap = max(recent_abs[int(len(recent_abs) * 0.9)], 0.0002)
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return _clamp(prediction, -cap, cap)
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def _torch_recurrent_hidden(
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normalized: list[float],
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*,
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entry: dict[str, Any],
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model_name: str,
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hidden_size: int,
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num_layers: int,
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) -> list[float] | None:
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state = entry.get("state_dict")
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if not isinstance(state, dict):
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return None
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h_layers = [[0.0 for _ in range(hidden_size)] for _ in range(num_layers)]
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c_layers = [[0.0 for _ in range(hidden_size)] for _ in range(num_layers)]
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for value in normalized:
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layer_input = [value]
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for layer in range(num_layers):
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if model_name == "torch_lstm":
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next_hidden, next_cell = _torch_lstm_step(layer_input, h_layers[layer], c_layers[layer], state, layer)
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h_layers[layer] = next_hidden
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c_layers[layer] = next_cell
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elif model_name == "torch_gru":
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h_layers[layer] = _torch_gru_step(layer_input, h_layers[layer], state, layer)
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else:
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return None
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layer_input = h_layers[layer]
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return h_layers[-1]
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def _torch_lstm_step(
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inputs: list[float],
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hidden: list[float],
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cell: list[float],
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state: dict[str, Any],
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layer: int,
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) -> tuple[list[float], list[float]]:
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hidden_size = len(hidden)
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gates = _torch_gate_values(inputs, hidden, state, layer, gate_count=4)
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input_gate = [_sigmoid(value) for value in gates[0]]
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forget_gate = [_sigmoid(value) for value in gates[1]]
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cell_gate = [math.tanh(value) for value in gates[2]]
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output_gate = [_sigmoid(value) for value in gates[3]]
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next_cell = [
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forget_gate[index] * cell[index] + input_gate[index] * cell_gate[index]
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for index in range(hidden_size)
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]
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next_hidden = [
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output_gate[index] * math.tanh(next_cell[index])
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for index in range(hidden_size)
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]
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return next_hidden, next_cell
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def _torch_gru_step(
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inputs: list[float],
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hidden: list[float],
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state: dict[str, Any],
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layer: int,
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) -> list[float]:
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hidden_size = len(hidden)
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weight_ih = _float_matrix(state[f"weight_ih_l{layer}"])
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weight_hh = _float_matrix(state[f"weight_hh_l{layer}"])
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bias_ih = _float_vector(state[f"bias_ih_l{layer}"])
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bias_hh = _float_vector(state[f"bias_hh_l{layer}"])
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def gate_input(gate: int) -> list[float]:
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start = gate * hidden_size
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output = []
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for index in range(hidden_size):
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row = start + index
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output.append(_dot(weight_ih[row], inputs) + bias_ih[row])
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return output
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def gate_hidden(gate: int) -> list[float]:
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start = gate * hidden_size
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output = []
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for index in range(hidden_size):
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row = start + index
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output.append(_dot(weight_hh[row], hidden) + bias_hh[row])
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return output
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reset_input = gate_input(0)
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update_input = gate_input(1)
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new_input = gate_input(2)
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reset_hidden = gate_hidden(0)
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update_hidden = gate_hidden(1)
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new_hidden = gate_hidden(2)
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reset_gate = [_sigmoid(reset_input[index] + reset_hidden[index]) for index in range(hidden_size)]
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update_gate = [_sigmoid(update_input[index] + update_hidden[index]) for index in range(hidden_size)]
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candidate = [
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math.tanh(new_input[index] + reset_gate[index] * new_hidden[index])
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for index in range(hidden_size)
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]
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return [
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(1 - update_gate[index]) * candidate[index] + update_gate[index] * hidden[index]
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for index in range(hidden_size)
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]
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def _torch_gate_values(
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inputs: list[float],
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hidden: list[float],
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state: dict[str, Any],
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layer: int,
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gate_count: int,
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) -> list[list[float]]:
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hidden_size = len(hidden)
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weight_ih = _float_matrix(state[f"weight_ih_l{layer}"])
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weight_hh = _float_matrix(state[f"weight_hh_l{layer}"])
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bias_ih = _float_vector(state[f"bias_ih_l{layer}"])
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bias_hh = _float_vector(state[f"bias_hh_l{layer}"])
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gates: list[list[float]] = []
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for gate in range(gate_count):
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values = []
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start = gate * hidden_size
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for index in range(hidden_size):
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row = start + index
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values.append(_dot(weight_ih[row], inputs) + _dot(weight_hh[row], hidden) + bias_ih[row] + bias_hh[row])
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gates.append(values)
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return gates
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def _float_entry(data: dict[str, Any], key: str, default: float) -> float:
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value = data.get(key)
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if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
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return float(value)
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if isinstance(value, str):
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try:
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return float(value)
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except ValueError:
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return default
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return default
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def _float_vector(data: Any) -> list[float]:
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if not isinstance(data, list):
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return []
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return [float(value) for value in data]
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def _float_matrix(data: Any) -> list[list[float]]:
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if not isinstance(data, list):
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return []
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return [_float_vector(row) for row in data]
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def _dot(left: list[float], right: list[float]) -> float:
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return sum(left[index] * right[index] for index in range(min(len(left), len(right))))
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def _lstm_predict(
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returns: list[float],
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settings: Settings,
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@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
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# Optional local-only training dependency for tools/train_torch_recurrent_forecaster.py.
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# Prefer the CPU wheel on Windows:
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# python -m pip install torch --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/cpu
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torch>=2.5
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numpy>=2.0
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@@ -122,3 +122,50 @@ def test_time_series_forecaster_reads_lstm_artifact(make_settings, tmp_path) ->
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assert forecast.usable is True
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assert any(candidate["model"] == "lstm" for candidate in forecast.candidates)
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def test_time_series_forecaster_reads_torch_gru_artifact(make_settings, tmp_path) -> None:
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artifact_path = tmp_path / "lstm_forecaster.json"
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hidden_size = 2
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artifact_path.write_text(
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json.dumps(
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{
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"version": 2,
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"type": "pytorch_recurrent_forecaster",
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"symbols": {
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"BTCUSDT": {
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"model": "torch_gru",
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"architecture": "gru",
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"lookback": 8,
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"hidden_size": hidden_size,
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"num_layers": 1,
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"mean": 0.0,
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"scale": 0.001,
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"clip": 8.0,
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"state_dict": {
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"weight_ih_l0": [[0.0] for _ in range(3 * hidden_size)],
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"weight_hh_l0": [[0.0, 0.0] for _ in range(3 * hidden_size)],
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"bias_ih_l0": [0.0 for _ in range(3 * hidden_size)],
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"bias_hh_l0": [0.0 for _ in range(3 * hidden_size)],
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},
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"head_weight": [0.0, 0.0],
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"head_bias": 0.2,
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},
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},
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}
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),
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encoding="utf-8",
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)
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settings = make_settings(
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tmp_path,
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time_series_min_candles=80,
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time_series_validation_window=20,
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time_series_lstm_enabled=True,
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time_series_lstm_model_path=artifact_path,
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)
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returns = [0.00015 if index % 4 else -0.00005 for index in range(140)]
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forecast = TimeSeriesForecaster(settings).forecast(_candles_from_returns(returns), symbol="BTCUSDT")
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assert forecast.usable is True
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assert any(candidate["model"] == "torch_gru" for candidate in forecast.candidates)
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@@ -3,7 +3,10 @@ param(
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[string]$TaskName = "TradeBot LSTM Retrainer",
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[int]$EveryHours = 6,
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[string]$Symbols = "BTCUSDT,ETHUSDT,SOLUSDT,XRPUSDT,LTCUSDT",
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[int]$Limit = 1000
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[int]$Limit = 1000,
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[ValidateSet("torch", "reservoir")]
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[string]$Trainer = "torch",
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[int]$FirstRunMinutes = 0
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)
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$ErrorActionPreference = "Stop"
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@@ -14,7 +17,7 @@ if (-not (Test-Path $Runner)) {
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throw "Runner not found: $Runner"
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}
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$actionArgs = "-NoProfile -ExecutionPolicy Bypass -File `"$Runner`""
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$actionArgs = "-NoProfile -ExecutionPolicy Bypass -File `"$Runner`" -Trainer $Trainer"
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if ($Symbols) {
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$actionArgs += " -Symbols `"$Symbols`""
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}
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@@ -24,7 +27,7 @@ if ($Limit -gt 0) {
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$action = New-ScheduledTaskAction -Execute "powershell.exe" -Argument $actionArgs -WorkingDirectory $RepoRoot
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$trigger = New-ScheduledTaskTrigger `
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-Once `
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-At (Get-Date).AddMinutes(5) `
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-At (Get-Date).AddMinutes($(if ($FirstRunMinutes -gt 0) { $FirstRunMinutes } else { $EveryHours * 60 })) `
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-RepetitionInterval (New-TimeSpan -Hours $EveryHours) `
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-RepetitionDuration (New-TimeSpan -Days 3650)
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$principal = New-ScheduledTaskPrincipal `
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@@ -1,10 +1,18 @@
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[CmdletBinding()]
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param(
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[ValidateSet("torch", "reservoir")]
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||||
[string]$Trainer = "torch",
|
||||
[string]$Symbols = "",
|
||||
[int]$Limit = 0,
|
||||
[string]$Lookbacks = "",
|
||||
[string]$Units = "",
|
||||
[string]$Ridges = "",
|
||||
[string]$Architectures = "",
|
||||
[string]$HiddenSizes = "",
|
||||
[string]$Layers = "",
|
||||
[string]$Dropouts = "",
|
||||
[int]$Epochs = 0,
|
||||
[int]$Patience = 0,
|
||||
[string]$Interval = "",
|
||||
[string]$EnvFile = ""
|
||||
)
|
||||
@@ -47,9 +55,15 @@ if (-not $Symbols -and $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_SYMBOLS) { $Symbols = $env:LSTM_RETRAIN
|
||||
if ($Limit -le 0) {
|
||||
$Limit = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LIMIT) { [int]$env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LIMIT } else { 1000 }
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (-not $Lookbacks) { $Lookbacks = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LOOKBACKS) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LOOKBACKS } else { "16,32" } }
|
||||
if (-not $Lookbacks) { $Lookbacks = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LOOKBACKS) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LOOKBACKS } else { "32,64" } }
|
||||
if (-not $Units) { $Units = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_UNITS) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_UNITS } else { "4,6" } }
|
||||
if (-not $Ridges) { $Ridges = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_RIDGES) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_RIDGES } else { "0.001" } }
|
||||
if (-not $Architectures) { $Architectures = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_ARCHITECTURES) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_ARCHITECTURES } else { "lstm,gru" } }
|
||||
if (-not $HiddenSizes) { $HiddenSizes = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_HIDDEN_SIZES) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_HIDDEN_SIZES } else { "16,32" } }
|
||||
if (-not $Layers) { $Layers = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LAYERS) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_LAYERS } else { "1" } }
|
||||
if (-not $Dropouts) { $Dropouts = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_DROPOUTS) { $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_DROPOUTS } else { "0.0" } }
|
||||
if ($Epochs -le 0) { $Epochs = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_EPOCHS) { [int]$env:LSTM_RETRAIN_EPOCHS } else { 60 } }
|
||||
if ($Patience -le 0) { $Patience = if ($env:LSTM_RETRAIN_PATIENCE) { [int]$env:LSTM_RETRAIN_PATIENCE } else { 10 } }
|
||||
if (-not $Interval -and $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_INTERVAL) { $Interval = $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_INTERVAL }
|
||||
if (-not $EnvFile -and $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_ENV) { $EnvFile = $env:LSTM_RETRAIN_ENV }
|
||||
if (-not $EnvFile -and (Test-Path (Join-Path $RepoRoot ".env"))) { $EnvFile = Join-Path $RepoRoot ".env" }
|
||||
@@ -66,6 +80,20 @@ try {
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
$python = Resolve-Python
|
||||
if ($Trainer -eq "torch") {
|
||||
$trainerArgs = @(
|
||||
"-u",
|
||||
"tools\train_torch_recurrent_forecaster.py",
|
||||
"--limit", $Limit.ToString(),
|
||||
"--lookbacks", $Lookbacks,
|
||||
"--architectures", $Architectures,
|
||||
"--hidden-sizes", $HiddenSizes,
|
||||
"--layers", $Layers,
|
||||
"--dropouts", $Dropouts,
|
||||
"--epochs", $Epochs.ToString(),
|
||||
"--patience", $Patience.ToString()
|
||||
)
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
$trainerArgs = @(
|
||||
"-u",
|
||||
"tools\train_lstm_forecaster.py",
|
||||
@@ -74,6 +102,7 @@ try {
|
||||
"--units", $Units,
|
||||
"--ridges", $Ridges
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
if ($Symbols) { $trainerArgs += @("--symbols", $Symbols) }
|
||||
if ($Interval) { $trainerArgs += @("--interval", $Interval) }
|
||||
if ($EnvFile) { $trainerArgs += @("--env", $EnvFile) }
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,434 @@
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
import argparse
|
||||
import json
|
||||
import math
|
||||
import sys
|
||||
from dataclasses import dataclass
|
||||
from datetime import datetime, timezone
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
from typing import Any
|
||||
|
||||
PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
|
||||
if str(PROJECT_ROOT) not in sys.path:
|
||||
sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
import torch
|
||||
from torch import nn
|
||||
from torch.utils.data import DataLoader, TensorDataset
|
||||
except ImportError as exc: # pragma: no cover - exercised on machines without training deps.
|
||||
raise SystemExit(
|
||||
"PyTorch is not installed. Install local training deps with: "
|
||||
"python -m pip install torch --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/cpu"
|
||||
) from exc
|
||||
|
||||
from crypto_spot_bot.bybit import BybitClient
|
||||
from crypto_spot_bot.config import load_settings
|
||||
from crypto_spot_bot.time_series import _log_returns
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@dataclass(slots=True)
|
||||
class PreparedData:
|
||||
train_x: torch.Tensor
|
||||
train_y: torch.Tensor
|
||||
validation_x: torch.Tensor
|
||||
validation_y: torch.Tensor
|
||||
validation_returns: list[float]
|
||||
mean: float
|
||||
scale: float
|
||||
train_samples: int
|
||||
validation_samples: int
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class RecurrentReturnModel(nn.Module):
|
||||
def __init__(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
*,
|
||||
architecture: str,
|
||||
hidden_size: int,
|
||||
num_layers: int,
|
||||
dropout: float,
|
||||
) -> None:
|
||||
super().__init__()
|
||||
recurrent_cls = nn.LSTM if architecture == "lstm" else nn.GRU
|
||||
self.rnn = recurrent_cls(
|
||||
input_size=1,
|
||||
hidden_size=hidden_size,
|
||||
num_layers=num_layers,
|
||||
dropout=dropout if num_layers > 1 else 0.0,
|
||||
batch_first=True,
|
||||
)
|
||||
self.head = nn.Linear(hidden_size, 1)
|
||||
|
||||
def forward(self, values: torch.Tensor) -> torch.Tensor:
|
||||
output, _state = self.rnn(values)
|
||||
return self.head(output[:, -1, :]).squeeze(-1)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def main() -> None:
|
||||
args = _parse_args()
|
||||
if args.threads > 0:
|
||||
torch.set_num_threads(args.threads)
|
||||
_seed(args.seed)
|
||||
|
||||
settings = load_settings(args.env)
|
||||
client = BybitClient(settings)
|
||||
symbols = _symbols(args.symbols, settings, client)
|
||||
interval = args.interval or settings.base_interval
|
||||
output = Path(args.output) if args.output else settings.time_series_lstm_model_path
|
||||
device = _device(args.device)
|
||||
|
||||
artifact: dict[str, Any] = {
|
||||
"version": 2,
|
||||
"type": "pytorch_recurrent_forecaster",
|
||||
"created_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
|
||||
"trainer": Path(__file__).name,
|
||||
"interval": interval,
|
||||
"limit": args.limit,
|
||||
"validation_window": args.validation_window,
|
||||
"device": str(device),
|
||||
"symbols": {},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
for symbol in symbols:
|
||||
result = _train_symbol(
|
||||
client=client,
|
||||
symbol=symbol,
|
||||
interval=interval,
|
||||
limit=args.limit,
|
||||
validation_window=args.validation_window,
|
||||
architectures=_strings(args.architectures),
|
||||
lookbacks=_ints(args.lookbacks),
|
||||
hidden_sizes=_ints(args.hidden_sizes),
|
||||
layers_values=_ints(args.layers),
|
||||
dropouts=_floats(args.dropouts),
|
||||
epochs=args.epochs,
|
||||
patience=args.patience,
|
||||
batch_size=args.batch_size,
|
||||
learning_rate=args.learning_rate,
|
||||
weight_decay=args.weight_decay,
|
||||
clip=args.clip,
|
||||
device=device,
|
||||
seed=args.seed,
|
||||
)
|
||||
if result is None:
|
||||
print(f"{symbol}: skipped, not enough candles or train/validation samples")
|
||||
continue
|
||||
artifact["symbols"][symbol] = result
|
||||
print(
|
||||
f"{symbol}: model={result['model']} lookback={result['lookback']} "
|
||||
f"hidden={result['hidden_size']} layers={result['num_layers']} "
|
||||
f"mae={result['validation_mae_percent']:.5f}% "
|
||||
f"baseline={result['baseline_mae_percent']:.5f}% skill={result['skill']:.4f}"
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
tmp_output = output.with_name(f"{output.name}.tmp")
|
||||
tmp_output.write_text(json.dumps(artifact, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
|
||||
tmp_output.replace(output)
|
||||
print(f"saved {output}")
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
|
||||
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Train PyTorch LSTM/GRU forecast models on Bybit spot candles.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--env", default=None, help="Path to .env file.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--symbols", default="", help="Comma-separated symbols. Defaults to configured or popular pairs.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--interval", default="", help="Bybit kline interval. Defaults to BASE_INTERVAL.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=1000, help="Kline limit per symbol.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--validation-window", type=int, default=120, help="Held-out tail returns used for validation.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--architectures", default="lstm,gru", help="Comma-separated recurrent types: lstm,gru.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--lookbacks", default="32,64", help="Comma-separated sequence lengths.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--hidden-sizes", default="16,32", help="Comma-separated hidden sizes.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--layers", default="1", help="Comma-separated recurrent layer counts.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--dropouts", default="0.0", help="Comma-separated dropout values; only used with layers > 1.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--epochs", type=int, default=60, help="Maximum epochs per hyperparameter candidate.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--patience", type=int, default=10, help="Early stopping patience in epochs.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--batch-size", type=int, default=64, help="Training batch size.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--learning-rate", type=float, default=0.001, help="AdamW learning rate.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--weight-decay", type=float, default=0.0001, help="AdamW weight decay.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--clip", type=float, default=8.0, help="Clamp normalized returns and predictions to this range.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=7, help="Random seed.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--threads", type=int, default=0, help="Torch CPU threads; 0 keeps torch default.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--device", default="auto", help="auto, cpu, cuda, or mps.")
|
||||
parser.add_argument("--output", default="", help="Output JSON path. Defaults to TIME_SERIES_LSTM_MODEL_PATH.")
|
||||
return parser.parse_args()
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _symbols(raw: str, settings: Any, client: BybitClient) -> list[str]:
|
||||
if raw.strip():
|
||||
return [item.strip().upper() for item in raw.split(",") if item.strip()]
|
||||
if settings.symbols:
|
||||
return list(settings.symbols)
|
||||
return client.popular_spot_symbols(settings.top_symbols_count)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _train_symbol(
|
||||
*,
|
||||
client: BybitClient,
|
||||
symbol: str,
|
||||
interval: str,
|
||||
limit: int,
|
||||
validation_window: int,
|
||||
architectures: list[str],
|
||||
lookbacks: list[int],
|
||||
hidden_sizes: list[int],
|
||||
layers_values: list[int],
|
||||
dropouts: list[float],
|
||||
epochs: int,
|
||||
patience: int,
|
||||
batch_size: int,
|
||||
learning_rate: float,
|
||||
weight_decay: float,
|
||||
clip: float,
|
||||
device: torch.device,
|
||||
seed: int,
|
||||
) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
|
||||
candles = client.klines(symbol, interval, limit)
|
||||
closes = [float(candle.close) for candle in candles if candle.close > 0]
|
||||
returns = _log_returns(closes)
|
||||
if len(returns) < max(100, validation_window + 80):
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
best: dict[str, Any] | None = None
|
||||
for lookback in lookbacks:
|
||||
prepared = _prepare_data(returns, lookback, validation_window, clip, device)
|
||||
if prepared is None:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
baseline_mae = sum(abs(value) for value in prepared.validation_returns) / len(prepared.validation_returns)
|
||||
for architecture in architectures:
|
||||
if architecture not in {"lstm", "gru"}:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
for hidden_size in hidden_sizes:
|
||||
for num_layers in layers_values:
|
||||
for dropout in dropouts:
|
||||
candidate = _fit_candidate(
|
||||
prepared=prepared,
|
||||
architecture=architecture,
|
||||
hidden_size=hidden_size,
|
||||
num_layers=num_layers,
|
||||
dropout=dropout,
|
||||
epochs=epochs,
|
||||
patience=patience,
|
||||
batch_size=batch_size,
|
||||
learning_rate=learning_rate,
|
||||
weight_decay=weight_decay,
|
||||
clip=clip,
|
||||
device=device,
|
||||
seed=seed,
|
||||
)
|
||||
validation_mae = float(candidate["validation_mae"])
|
||||
skill = (baseline_mae - validation_mae) / baseline_mae if baseline_mae > 0 else 0.0
|
||||
row = {
|
||||
**candidate,
|
||||
"model": f"torch_{architecture}",
|
||||
"architecture": architecture,
|
||||
"lookback": lookback,
|
||||
"hidden_size": hidden_size,
|
||||
"num_layers": num_layers,
|
||||
"dropout": dropout,
|
||||
"mean": prepared.mean,
|
||||
"scale": prepared.scale,
|
||||
"clip": clip,
|
||||
"validation_mae_percent": validation_mae * 100,
|
||||
"baseline_mae_percent": baseline_mae * 100,
|
||||
"skill": skill,
|
||||
"candles": len(candles),
|
||||
"returns": len(returns),
|
||||
"train_samples": prepared.train_samples,
|
||||
"validation_samples": prepared.validation_samples,
|
||||
}
|
||||
if best is None or validation_mae < float(best["validation_mae"]):
|
||||
best = row
|
||||
if best is None:
|
||||
return None
|
||||
best.pop("validation_mae", None)
|
||||
return best
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _prepare_data(
|
||||
returns: list[float],
|
||||
lookback: int,
|
||||
validation_window: int,
|
||||
clip: float,
|
||||
device: torch.device,
|
||||
) -> PreparedData | None:
|
||||
validation_window = min(max(16, validation_window), max(16, len(returns) // 3))
|
||||
split = len(returns) - validation_window
|
||||
if split <= lookback + 16:
|
||||
return None
|
||||
train_returns = returns[:split]
|
||||
mean = sum(train_returns) / len(train_returns)
|
||||
scale = _return_scale(train_returns)
|
||||
normalized = [_clamp((value - mean) / scale, -clip, clip) for value in returns]
|
||||
train_x: list[list[list[float]]] = []
|
||||
train_y: list[float] = []
|
||||
validation_x: list[list[list[float]]] = []
|
||||
validation_y: list[float] = []
|
||||
validation_returns: list[float] = []
|
||||
for target_index in range(lookback, len(returns)):
|
||||
row = [[value] for value in normalized[target_index - lookback : target_index]]
|
||||
target = normalized[target_index]
|
||||
if target_index < split:
|
||||
train_x.append(row)
|
||||
train_y.append(target)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
validation_x.append(row)
|
||||
validation_y.append(target)
|
||||
validation_returns.append(returns[target_index])
|
||||
if len(train_x) < 24 or len(validation_x) < 8:
|
||||
return None
|
||||
return PreparedData(
|
||||
train_x=torch.tensor(train_x, dtype=torch.float32, device=device),
|
||||
train_y=torch.tensor(train_y, dtype=torch.float32, device=device),
|
||||
validation_x=torch.tensor(validation_x, dtype=torch.float32, device=device),
|
||||
validation_y=torch.tensor(validation_y, dtype=torch.float32, device=device),
|
||||
validation_returns=validation_returns,
|
||||
mean=mean,
|
||||
scale=scale,
|
||||
train_samples=len(train_x),
|
||||
validation_samples=len(validation_x),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _fit_candidate(
|
||||
*,
|
||||
prepared: PreparedData,
|
||||
architecture: str,
|
||||
hidden_size: int,
|
||||
num_layers: int,
|
||||
dropout: float,
|
||||
epochs: int,
|
||||
patience: int,
|
||||
batch_size: int,
|
||||
learning_rate: float,
|
||||
weight_decay: float,
|
||||
clip: float,
|
||||
device: torch.device,
|
||||
seed: int,
|
||||
) -> dict[str, Any]:
|
||||
_seed(seed)
|
||||
model = RecurrentReturnModel(
|
||||
architecture=architecture,
|
||||
hidden_size=hidden_size,
|
||||
num_layers=num_layers,
|
||||
dropout=dropout,
|
||||
).to(device)
|
||||
optimizer = torch.optim.AdamW(model.parameters(), lr=learning_rate, weight_decay=weight_decay)
|
||||
criterion = nn.SmoothL1Loss(beta=0.5)
|
||||
generator = torch.Generator(device="cpu").manual_seed(seed)
|
||||
loader = DataLoader(
|
||||
TensorDataset(prepared.train_x, prepared.train_y),
|
||||
batch_size=max(1, batch_size),
|
||||
shuffle=True,
|
||||
generator=generator,
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
best_state: dict[str, torch.Tensor] | None = None
|
||||
best_mae = math.inf
|
||||
best_epoch = 0
|
||||
stale_epochs = 0
|
||||
for epoch in range(1, max(1, epochs) + 1):
|
||||
model.train()
|
||||
for batch_x, batch_y in loader:
|
||||
optimizer.zero_grad(set_to_none=True)
|
||||
loss = criterion(model(batch_x), batch_y)
|
||||
loss.backward()
|
||||
nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(model.parameters(), max_norm=1.0)
|
||||
optimizer.step()
|
||||
|
||||
validation_mae = _validation_mae(model, prepared, clip)
|
||||
if validation_mae + 1e-12 < best_mae:
|
||||
best_mae = validation_mae
|
||||
best_epoch = epoch
|
||||
best_state = {key: value.detach().cpu().clone() for key, value in model.state_dict().items()}
|
||||
stale_epochs = 0
|
||||
else:
|
||||
stale_epochs += 1
|
||||
if stale_epochs >= max(1, patience):
|
||||
break
|
||||
|
||||
if best_state:
|
||||
model.load_state_dict(best_state)
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"validation_mae": best_mae,
|
||||
"best_epoch": best_epoch,
|
||||
"epochs_trained": best_epoch + stale_epochs,
|
||||
"state_dict": _export_recurrent_state(model),
|
||||
"head_weight": _round_list(model.head.weight.detach().cpu().squeeze(0).tolist()),
|
||||
"head_bias": round(float(model.head.bias.detach().cpu().item()), 10),
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _validation_mae(model: nn.Module, prepared: PreparedData, clip: float) -> float:
|
||||
model.eval()
|
||||
with torch.no_grad():
|
||||
normalized_predictions = model(prepared.validation_x).detach().cpu().tolist()
|
||||
errors = []
|
||||
for prediction, actual in zip(normalized_predictions, prepared.validation_returns):
|
||||
raw_prediction = _clamp(float(prediction), -clip, clip) * prepared.scale + prepared.mean
|
||||
errors.append(abs(raw_prediction - actual))
|
||||
return sum(errors) / len(errors) if errors else math.inf
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _export_recurrent_state(model: RecurrentReturnModel) -> dict[str, Any]:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
key: _round_nested(value.detach().cpu().tolist())
|
||||
for key, value in model.rnn.state_dict().items()
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _device(raw: str) -> torch.device:
|
||||
value = raw.strip().lower()
|
||||
if value == "auto":
|
||||
if torch.cuda.is_available():
|
||||
return torch.device("cuda")
|
||||
if getattr(torch.backends, "mps", None) and torch.backends.mps.is_available():
|
||||
return torch.device("mps")
|
||||
return torch.device("cpu")
|
||||
return torch.device(value)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _seed(seed: int) -> None:
|
||||
torch.manual_seed(seed)
|
||||
if torch.cuda.is_available():
|
||||
torch.cuda.manual_seed_all(seed)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _return_scale(returns: list[float]) -> float:
|
||||
values = sorted(abs(value) for value in returns if math.isfinite(value))
|
||||
if not values:
|
||||
return 0.0005
|
||||
median = values[len(values) // 2]
|
||||
mean = sum(values) / len(values)
|
||||
return max(max(median, mean * 0.5), 1e-5)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _clamp(value: float, low: float, high: float) -> float:
|
||||
return max(low, min(high, value))
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _round_nested(value: Any) -> Any:
|
||||
if isinstance(value, list):
|
||||
return [_round_nested(item) for item in value]
|
||||
return round(float(value), 10)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _round_list(values: list[float]) -> list[float]:
|
||||
return [round(float(value), 10) for value in values]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _ints(raw: str) -> list[int]:
|
||||
return [int(item.strip()) for item in raw.split(",") if item.strip()]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _floats(raw: str) -> list[float]:
|
||||
return [float(item.strip()) for item in raw.split(",") if item.strip()]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _strings(raw: str) -> list[str]:
|
||||
return [item.strip().lower() for item in raw.split(",") if item.strip()]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||
main()
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user